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Strong Demand Expectations To Lift Oil Prices

12 July 2017, 12:40 | Melanie Burgess

Opec 'won't discuss' further oil production cuts in July, says Secretary General

Oil under pressure from OPEC, US output

Oil may slip below US$40 a barrel unless there are sustained inventory declines and a drop in the rig count, while evidence of further Opec actions could help prices rally, Damien Courvalin, an analyst at Goldman, said in a note dated July 10.

West Texas Intermediate crude, the US benchmark, fell 2.6 percent to $44.32 a barrel as of 7:58 a.m.in NY on Friday. Brent crude, the benchmark for more than half the world's oil, slipped 0.6 per cent to $46.59 in London.

"The market right now is questioning the efficacy of Opec's supply cuts", Tchilinguirian said.

Crude prices continued to rebound after a sharp sell off last week, the sixth weekly loss in seven weeks driven by concerns over a market glut.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices were 1.87 per cent up at $45.23 per barrel.

The producers elected in May to extend their curbs through March 2018, as the oil market has yet to stabilize.

Oil prices rose modestly on Monday, but increased drilling activity in the United States and uncertainty over Libyan and Nigerian production cuts clouded the future supply outlook.

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The disappointment with the slow pace of the deal that surfaced in the spring was exacerbated by resurgent USA shale oil output, attracted back by the higher prices, and more recently by the recovery in production in two exempt Opec members, Nigeria and Libya.

OIL traded near the lowest closing price in two weeks, erasing earlier gains after an OPEC minister said Libya and Nigeria may be requested to cap their production.

The two countries (both are OPEC members) have been exempted from the obligation to cut crude production because their industries had been crippled by civil unrest.

With deeper cuts now not on the agenda, according to OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo, the group is exploring other ways the agreement could be adjusted.

"The simple truth is that OPEC and Russian Federation have to contend with the fact that there is output growth elsewhere diluting their efforts at reducing supply", Tchilinguirian said.

If Libya and Nigeria are able to stabilise their output at current levels, they will be asked to cap supply as soon as possible, Almarzooq said.

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