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US CPI and retail sales data miss knock the dollar down

16 July 2017, 01:13 | Hattie Nash

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Should we see the latter today, as expected, and it be accompanied by uninspiring spending data, it will only harden people's belief's that the Fed should hold off on the next hike until next year and could therefore weigh further on the dollar and Treasury yields.

"Caution on the part of consumers comes despite a solid job market and booming equity markets and is feeding into core inflation through price wars on cell phone service, airfares, cars, clothing", she told Business Insider.

Gas prices fell 2.8 percent in June, after a 6.4 percent fall in May. The British pound rose sharply against the greenback on Friday, climbing more than 1 percent after data further undermined expectations for more hikes in US interest rates.

USA two-year yields slid as well, down to 1.339 percent, from Thursday's 1.367 percent, after sliding to a three-week trough of 1.323 percent.

Traders will also be looking at the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data as the next important inflection point with year-on-year inflation rate estimated to decline for a fourth consecutive month by 1.7 percent in June following a similar gain in May, it would also be the lowest since November 2016. The euro jumped by 0.42%, hitting $1.1449.

Weak auto sales, which have been down in the first half of 2017, were not to blame this time: excluding that volatile category, sales were still down 0.2 percent.

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If we look at the chart of Core inflation below it shows just how bad the inflation problem is - the chart shows core inflation in an entrenched downtrend, measured on a year-on-year basis over a five-year period.

European shares had their strongest week in more than two months as investors piled back into equities on signs that the world's major central banks would likely not tighten monetary policy as quickly as some had feared. The drop came after the United States data raised doubts about U.S. economic growth and whether the Fed will hike rates again this year. Investors saw the remarks as a signal that the Fed, which has raised interest rates three times since December, might slow the pace of future interest rate increases. It earlier fell to 2.279 percent, its lowest since June 30.

Wall Street rallied after Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen's testimony to Congress this week as she seemed to open the door for such a pause, by acknowledging that a recent decline in inflation further below the central bank's 2% target may not, in fact, be as fleeting as policymakers had hoped.

A supply interruption in Nigeria boosted crude oil and prices posted a weekly gain of more than 4 percent on lower US stockpiles. It was poised for a weekly gain of 1.3 percent, the biggest since mid-May.

Drugmaker AstraZeneca AZN.L continued Thursday's slide, down 1.6 percent due to uncertainty around reports that CEO Pascal Soriot was preparing to leave the company.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 46 cents to settle at US$46.54 per barrel.



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